Is 2019 the New 2006?

By Daniel Fernández on July 12, 2019

When the yield curve inverted in 2006, analysts said that “this time it’s different,” that the US economy was solid. Some can be heard making the same claims in 2019. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme, and 2019 appears to be rhyming with 2006.

Click here to continue reading

Will China Reverse Its Trade Surplus with the United States?

By Diego Santizo on May 21, 2019

China’s trade surplus with the US continues to grow despite Trump’s rhetoric. Will this trend continue?

Click here to continue reading

The Real Public Debt in the United States and Europe

By Kike Briega, CFA on April 23, 2019

If future pensions and health services were accounted for as debt, how much would the public debt amount to in the United States and in other countries?

Click here to continue reading

Two Economic Fallacies in Trump’s Anti-Trade Speech

By Edgar Ortiz on June 8, 2018

Why are Trump’s anti-trade arguments invalid?

Click here to continue reading

The Real Reason Behind the U.S. Trade Deficit (and Why Trump’s Trade War Is Insane)

By Olav Dirkmaat on April 9, 2018

Trump’s trade war borders on insanity. Discover the real reason of the U.S. trade deficit.

Click here to continue reading

The Fed Ignores the Yield Curve (But the Yield Curve Is Warning for a Recession)

By Olav Dirkmaat on December 20, 2017

Why is Fed Chair Janet Yellen wrong about the yield curve?

Click here to continue reading

Trump’s Tax Reform Dissected

By Olav Dirkmaat on October 17, 2017

Two weeks ago, the Trump administration presented a detailed version of one of Trump’s most important election promises: a tax reform. What are the consequences of Trump’s recent tax proposal for the US budget deficit and public debt?

Click here to continue reading

The Accounting Cycle and Financial Bubbles: On the Current Indifference on Accounting Methods

By Olav Dirkmaat on September 25, 2017

As long as the stock market is booming, businesses get away with shady accounting practices. What do the recent cases of Netflix, Tesla and Alphabet suggest about what phase of the business cycle we are in?

Click here to continue reading

US GDP Growth a Solid 3%, But Is Trouble Ahead?

By Olav Dirkmaat on September 4, 2017

The US economy is growing at a 3% annual rate. But are things as they seem?

Click here to continue reading

Does the Fed Follow Its Own Rules?

By Daniel Fernández on May 22, 2017

One of the most interesting discussions in the field of monetary theory concerns the role central banks play in the economy. There are multiple views regarding different issues: from questioning the mere existence of the central bank to the actual role a central bank should take.

Click here to continue reading

Get our free exclusive report on our unique methodology to predict recessions

logo H UFM

Edificio Académico E-505
Calle Manuel F. Ayau (6 Calle final), zona 10
Guatemala, Guatemala 01010
Telephone: (+502) 2338-7723/24

This project is made possible by a grant from the John Templeton Foundation | © 2015 - 2017 Universidad Francisco Marroquín | | (cc) BY-NC-ND