Nominal GDP Target for the United States?

By Clynton López on November 17, 2016

During the last seven years credit volumes did not grow as as in previous liquidity periods, despite having the federal reserve interest rates close to 0%. This means the US economy is not expanding.

Click here to continue reading

Inflation Target or GDP Target: More Ideology?

By Clynton López on November 2, 2016

Today, the central bank debate focuses on whether they should continue to use the inflation target as the main objective for monetary policies or if it should change to a nominal GDP target.

Click here to continue reading

The US Economy: Same as It Ever Was?

By Clynton López on September 5, 2016

The annualized quarterly GDP is growing, but it has been growing at a lower rate since the third quarter of 2015. Commercial and industrial credit is growing at a rate of an economy that is not expanding.

Click here to continue reading

Is the U.S. Stock Market Overvalued?

By Daniel Fernández on July 7, 2016

Is now a good time to invest in the stock market? Is the U.S. stock market overvalued? Unquestionably, since this drop and compared to the Great Recession, securities have risen a great deal in price.

Click here to continue reading

The Recent Rise in Delinquency Rates on Bank Loans Is Shocking (Is a New Banking Crisis Imminent?)

By Olav Dirkmaat on June 27, 2016

The delinquency rate on loans is key in understanding banking. What percentage of loans is overdue for payment? And is a new banking crisis imminent?

Click here to continue reading

Are Banking Industry Returns at Peril?

By Roberto Morales Chang on June 23, 2016

There exist two industries that did not manage to reach analyst estimates and experienced a sharp decline in earnings: oil and the banking industry. The European Central Bank has once again decided to continue with negative interest rates and contribute to credit expansion where lowering of interest rates and increasing in borrowing are facilitated.

Click here to continue reading

Sell In May

By Roberto Morales Chang on June 2, 2016

The efficient-market hypothesis becomes questionable with the phrase “sell in May and go away”, because if really the case, the market will have already reflected the available information and the value of the stock before May arrives.

Click here to continue reading

The U.S. and the Fall of the Federal Reserve

By Clynton López on May 26, 2016

Typically, it is believed that a nation’s central bank is the resolute decider of the economy of its nation. In today’s day and age, in the political-economic establishment of international bureaucracies, it is easy to envision the end of the world for some nations without the central bank. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It serves as a decentralized entity broken up into 12 districts across the country and a Board of Governors in Washington D.C. Founded in 1913, its decisions throughout history have always proven to be controversial.

Click here to continue reading

Has the United States Recovered from the Recession?

By Clynton López on May 5, 2016

Perhaps the most important theoretical topic concerning the economy as a discipline is attempting to explain the idea of economic cycles. In practical terms, an economic cycle is understood as being a periodic fluctuation in national income, employment and prices. Successful, and sometimes not so successful, attempts at an explanation have been made in both the media and academic worlds.

Click here to continue reading

Are Stock Buybacks in the US Signs of a New Recession?

By Daniel Fernández on November 10, 2015

One of the big concerns on Wall Street is the large amount of share buybacks that corporations are currently engaging in. It’s generally thought that companies engage in buybacks when they have limited investment opportunities to deploy cash.

Click here to continue reading

Get our free exclusive report on our unique methodology to predict recessions

logo-footer-400
instituto-juan-de-mariana-400

Edificio Académico E-505
Calle Manuel F. Ayau (6 Calle final), zona 10
Guatemala, Guatemala 01010
Telephone: (+502) 2338-7723/24
mtrends@ufm.edu

This project is made possible by a grant from the John Templeton Foundation | © 2015 - 2017 Universidad Francisco Marroquín | webmaster@ufm.edu | (cc) BY-NC-ND