Actionable Research to Outsmart the Market

For investors, economists, bankers, risk managers and the curious:

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Country Analysis

We analyze the most relevant economies, covering 90% of global GDP: United States, Eurozone, China, Mexico, Spain, Central-America (including: Guatemala).

Quarterly Reports

We publish our analyses on a quarterly basis, four times a year.

Innovative Combination of Indicators

We give you an unfair advantage by combining some of our unique and distinctive indicators.

An innovative combination of indicators

Financial sector liquidity gap

The degree of maturity mismatching shows whether the economy is on an unsustainable path.

Yield curve spread

The best predictor of recessions since 1950, especially in combination with our liquidity gap, will warn you in time for the next recession.

Equity Q Ratio

The most robust measure of financial overvaluation. The higher Q, the greater the likelihood of negative returns.

Financial Institution Balance Sheet Indicators

Non-performing loans, net interest margins, TED spread (the difference between “risk-free” interest rates and the financing costs of financial intermediaries) and more.

Liquidity of households and businesses

Debt-to- income ratios of both households and businesses.

Demand in cyclical industries

The demand in cyclical industries is generally driven by credit. Any unsustainable growth of credit can be observed in these sectors in an early stage.

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This is how you benefit

Avoid Doing the Wrong Thing at the Wrong Time

From ‘07 to ‘08, the S&P 500 fell over 56%. And from ’00 to ‘02, the NASDAQ collapsed, resulting in a loss of almost 75%. UFM Market Trends will help you to overcome the tendency of the crowd to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Back-tested Indicators

With our unique methodology, we would have been able to warn you in time for the 2000 recession (dotcom bubble), the Great Recession of 2008, and the 2012 European debt crisis.

Unique Insights and Methodology

Traditional financial newsletters focus on obvious – often lagging – indicators that have little to no predictive power. We have carefully developed and refined our set of economic indicators for many years.

At a Single Glance

Our reports are structured so that you can read its most important takeaways in less than a minute. Our recession likelihood quadrant shows how different economies relate to each other and how likely a recession in each one of them is.

Common Sense Economics

We do not pretend to impress you with fancy mathematical models. We are vigilant about what is happening in the real world. We look at the seen and the unseen.

Pattern Predictions

We tell you when the (economic) tide turns in the world’s most important markets. The market does not care about the past, but about the future. You do too.


“You stole my project! This is one of those things I always wanted to do.”

Peter Boettke, professor of economics George Mason University


Who We Are

UFM Market Trends was founded in 2014 by the Francisco Marroquín University ( in Guatemala to monitor the likelihood of economic crises. With the support of the Sir John Templeton Foundation, the project has grown rapidly. Market Trends is currently supported by a research team of over twenty strong and followed my thousands of practitioners.


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Edificio Académico E-505
Calle Manuel F. Ayau (6 Calle final), zona 10
Guatemala, Guatemala 01010
Telephone: (+502) 2338-7723/24

This project is made possible by a grant from the John Templeton Foundation | © 2015 - 2017 Universidad Francisco Marroquín | | (cc) BY-NC-ND