Underneath the Hood, the US Economic Engine Is Faltering

Contrary to what many think, the underlying data show that the US economy is heading for trouble. Commercial, industrial and consumer credit growth is weakening. Delinquency rates on commercial and industrial loans are rising. Car sales have peaked and the auto industry is heading for trouble. Stock markets are at all-time highs (and overvalued). Unemployment is reaching cyclical lows. Banks have been increasingly engaging in maturity mismatching over the past few years, but are now scrambling to recover liquidity. In other words: the US economy has passed a tipping point. Pressures are building beneath the surface after years of near zero interest rates, precisely when the Fed is raising interest rates.