An Almost Flattened Yield Curve, Or the Calm Before the Storm

The best GDP growth rate of the past four years is not enough to scare away the ghosts of the recession. The increase in the demand for cyclical consumer goods contrasts with a profound deceleration in the investment of private inventories. After the Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 1.50%, both the effective rate of federal funds and the LIBOR price continues to grow as the IOR increases. The contraction of the QE continues. Inflation remains close to the expectations of US monetary authorities. Even though loan delinquency rates are decreasing and the price of stocks are increasing, the yield curve continues to flatten. The dollar outlook for 2018 is of a currency that depreciates against its largest competitors in the world.