Forget the Trade War with the United States: China’s Growth Is Slowing in a Global Crisis

China’s real GDP growth in 2018 was 6.6 percent. The year began with an annualized growth rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter. The low volatility in real GDP growth since the first quarter of 2015 (between 6.4 and 7 percent) has reinforced the need to look for alternative economic indicators that capture economic cycles in the Asian country. Public accounts are opaque in China. The Li Keqiang Index, capital-intensive consumption of energy, cyclical demand for consumer goods, and above all the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index are indicating a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, except in the real estate sector, which has not yet reached its peak.