Posts by Olav Dirkmaat
Inflation or Deflation: Which Is More Likely?
Last year, I wrote that the current inflation has a fiscal rather than a monetary origin. In other words, we would not have the same inflation in the absence of fiscal stimulus, while we would have the same inflation in the absence of monetary stimulus. For the same reason, I have affirmed and continue to affirm that I view it as unlikely for current inflation rates to begin to consistently exceed two digits, as was the case in the 1970s. This same pandemic fiscal stimulus has caused serious problems in a variety of markets: sea, land and air freight, electronic products and their components, automobiles, and others, which have added fuel to the inflationary fire. This is the origin of the current inflation we are experiencing, and I will try to make my case with data. The Current Inflation In recent months, the rise in the general price level has…
Read MoreThe Battle for the Streaming Market: Netflix, Amazon, HBO and Disney
Fever in the cinematographic market: The cost escalation which could bring down giants like Netflix
Read MoreHow Likely is High Inflation? A Comprehensive Analysis
Are government handouts behind rising consumer prices and remittances?
Read MoreA Tale of the Two Trade Deficits between the United States and China
Why are the figures for the trade deficit between the United States and China different in the two countries? What does this discrepancy mean? Discover the answers to these questions here.
Read MoreThe Real Reason Behind the U.S. Trade Deficit (and Why Trump’s Trade War Is Insane)
Trump’s trade war borders on insanity. Discover the real reason of the U.S. trade deficit.
Read MoreThe Fed Ignores the Yield Curve (But the Yield Curve Is Warning for a Recession)
Why is Fed Chair Janet Yellen wrong about the yield curve?
Read MoreTrump’s Tax Reform Dissected
Two weeks ago, the Trump administration presented a detailed version of one of Trump’s most important election promises: a tax reform. What are the consequences of Trump’s recent tax proposal for the US budget deficit and public debt?
Read MoreThe Accounting Cycle and Financial Bubbles: On the Current Indifference on Accounting Methods
As long as the stock market is booming, businesses get away with shady accounting practices. What do the recent cases of Netflix, Tesla and Alphabet suggest about what phase of the business cycle we are in?
Read MoreUS GDP Growth a Solid 3%, But Is Trouble Ahead?
The US economy is growing at a 3% annual rate. But are things as they seem?
Read MoreHow OPEC Became Irrelevant: Traditional Oil Producing Countries Still Fail to Face the New Reality
The large traditional oil-producing countries — both OPEC and non-OPEC — are still catching up with the new reality. After deciding to extend the production cuts — agreed upon half a year ago — for another nine months, oil prices plunged below $50/barrel. Not quite the effect these oil giants were hoping for, but nothing out of the ordinary. After all, the fact is that supply and demand dynamics in the oil market have changed for good.
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